© 2009 IFPRI/Michele PietrowskiAs Baher Magulu sells maize flour to his customers at the Cashworth Mini Mart in Entebbe, Uganda, he doesn’t conceal his own surprise at the high price. In late May, one kilo of flour sold for 1700 Ugandan Shillings—200 more than it cost just one week earlier.

Unlike many African countries, local grain prices in Uganda were largely unaffected by soaring prices in 2008. Uganda is relatively isolated from global markets due in part to the high cost of shipping to this landlocked country. In addition, Uganda is self-sufficient in terms of national food production.

In early 2009, however, the story began to change. Between December 2008 and April 2009, local maize prices in Uganda increased by 4.6 percent. Increased exports to neighboring countries, including Kenya and the DRC, have been driving maize prices up, explains Mr. Magulu.

While producers may reap some benefits from the price increase, consumers are more likely to suffer from it. Understanding the nature and size of price effects has important policy implications. Within a given country, for example, the effects of a price increase can vary greatly across regions or districts. The impact on welfare can also differ at the household level, where women and girls often have less access to food and other resources.

According to a new IFPRI study, How Does Food Price Increase Affect Ugandan Households? An Augmented Multimarket Approach, policy responses need to take these conflicting effects and other factors into account if they intend to successfully assist both poor consumers and producers.

        

Gruere (left) and Rosegrant with Prof.
Richard E. Just, AAEA president.
Photo Credit: Paul Sweitzer Photography Mark Rosegrant, director, and Guillaume Gruère, research fellow, of the Environment and Production Technology Division received the Review of Agricultural Economics’ Outstanding Journal Article award by the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA).

According to Gruère, the article, “Assessing the Implementation Effects of the Biosafety Protocol’s Proposed Stringent Information Requirements for Genetically Modified Commodities in Countries of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation” shows “that strict requirements, as proposed in the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety, will translate into costly and unjustified regulatory procedures, affecting not only trade but also agricultural technology choices in the future.”

Gruère and Rosegrant’s article was published in the Review of Agricultural Economics in 2008 and full text is available to subscribers. The Review of Agricultural Economics is composed of research articles on agricultural, food, and natural resource economics relevant to policy and business decisions. Originally, the results of the study presented in the article were presented at a ministerial meeting of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) in Hanoi, Vietnam in February 2006 ahead of the Protocol meeting in March 2006.

They accepted the award at the AAEA and ACCI 2009 Joint Annual Meeting in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

        

                “A large proportion of the under nutrition in South Asia begins well before children are born, so it relates to gender constraints and issues related to women’s education to adolescent health to early marriage,” explains Purnima Menon, a research fellow at the International Food Research Policy Institute (IFPRI),in a recent interview.

“You have women entering pregnancies in a relatively poorly nourished state and earlier in their lives than they should otherwise and this has implications for their children’s nutrition and for subsequent growth.”

The devastating cycle of malnutrition has continued to alarming levels in India as identified by the 2008 India State Hunger Index (ISHI) released by IFPRI, Welthungerhilfe and UC Riverside.  Measuring the prevalence of malnutrition for children under five, the children under-five mortality rate,and the proportion of people who are calorie deficient, the ISHI combined the scores and ranked all the 17 major states in serious, alarming, or extremely alarming conditions.

The ISHI has received prominent media attention including an article about malnutrition in the New York Times and frequent mentions in Indian media. Listen to Menon, co-author of the ISHI, highlight some of the major research findings and policy implications of the ISHI.

                    

The shocking results of the study may have influenced the UPA government in India to propose a National Food  Security Act to be published in the very near future, according to the Times of India. The Times of India reported the Food Security Act will require families who are below poverty line in rural or urban areas to receive up to 25 kgs of food grain at 3 rupees/ kg per month. Currently, below poverty level families are provided with 35 kgs of rice or wheat per month. Wheat is available at 4.15 rupees/ kg while rice is 5.65 rupees/ kg.

Biraj Patnaik explained if the United Progressive party was voted back to power,Congress agreed to pass a food act based upon the premise that all citizens have the right to food. No one should go hungry. If the Indian government passes this bill, they will have taken the first step to improve their 66 out of 88 ranking on IFPRI’s Global Hunger Index.

 

While this Act may lead to improvement in malnutrition and hunger levels, the Indian government faces distribution challenges as well as financial setbacks. Some worry about the Food Security Act during a year the crop was not very successful, as well as whether there will be limits on the number of people in each state able to receive food due to storage and balanced distribution according to the population. A draft of the Food Security Bill will be published soon online at the website of the ministry of food and public distribution for ongoing debate before the final budget is available.

What do you think of the proposed plan? What are your hopes and concerns about the Food Security Act relating to the India State Hunger Index?

Download | Duration: 00:03:26

        

Two new IFPRI research papers focus on the consequences of climate change for poor farmers in Africa and provide policymakers with adaptation strategies. Economywide Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa analyzes two possible climate change adaptation options for the region. The paper uses two scenarios: the first doubles the irrigated area in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2050 but keeps total crop area constant; and the second scenario increases both rainfed and irrigated crop yields by 25 percent for all Sub-Saharan African countries. Due to the limited initial irrigated area in the region, an increase in agricultural productivity achieves better outcomes than an expansion of irrigated area. Both scenarios help lower world food prices, stimulating national and international food markets. Soil and Water Conservation Technologies: A Buffer against Production Risk in the Face of Climate Change? investigates the impact of different soil and water conservation technologies on the variance of crop production in Ethiopia to determine the risks of the different technologies for different regions and rainfall zones. The results show that soil and water conservation technologies have significant impacts on reducing production risk in Ethiopia and could be part of the country’s climate-proofing strategy. However, one-size-fits-all recommendations are not appropriate, so policymakers will have to use careful geographical targeting when identifying appropriate agricultural practices to act as a buffer against climate change.

        

© 2009 Claudia Ringler Farmers in Africa are already feeling the effects of climate change.

Benjamin Kariuki, a father of 5, lives in Gachoka division of Mbeere district in semi-arid Kenya. Every year he plants maize and beans to feed his family, but he depends on rain to water his crops. Benjamin believes that climate change is a reality, causing both higher temperatures and more volatile rainfall patterns. This year, he planted in January when the rains started, but lost the crop when the rains stopped. He planted again in February and a third time in March. The last time, he could only plant part of his field as he had no more seeds left and no more money to buy them.

The effects of climate change can be particularly severe for farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa, who rely almost exclusively on rainfall for crop production and have limited capacity to adapt.

For more information on climate change and agriculture visit www.ifpri.org/themes/climatechange/climatechange.asp

        

The Centers supported by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) and their partners generate a wealth of knowledge that can better enable rural people in developing countries to mitigate climate change and adapt to its impacts. The purpose of the Rural Climate Exchange Blog is to improve knowledge dissemination and collaboration so that the CG's research can serve global efforts to cope with climate change. To date, the blog has focused on critical issues such as putting rural people at the center of the international climate change negotiations (UNFCCC), the prospect of farmers transitioning from crop production to raising livestock, and the role of agriculture in the UNFCCC negotiations.

        

Climate change and its impacts on Asian countries was the focus of a high-level dialogue, hosted by the Asian Development Bank in Manila, on June 16-17. The event convened climate change policy leaders to discuss the path forward for the region and was co-hosted by Dr. R. K. Pachauri (Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and ADB President Haruhiko Kuroda. Prominent participants included UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon via video. Dr. Mark Rosegrant, Director of IFPRI's Environment and Production Technology Division, delivered a presentation on "Building Climate Resilience in the Agriculture Sector in Asia and the Pacific " (5.5 Mb). Based on a project commissioned by ADB for IFPRI, Dr. Rosegrant described the serious but varied impacts of climate change across Asia (see "Impacts on Asian Rice Production" above), using the results of IFPRI's modeling. He also proposed policies for adaptation and mitigation, with a focus on benefiting poor, smallholder farmers. More information on the event can be found on the ADB website.

        

Agriculture has increased the intensity of malaria around the world, because it can support the breeding of mosquitoes that carry the malaria parasite. Urbanization is increasing in most developing countries as a result of population growth. To feed the increasing population, farmers are cultivating undeveloped land around cities to produce and supply vegetables to the city dwellers. Water is vital for the success of the venture as cultivation is done year round. However, water is scarce in most of the cities and so it becomes a constraining factor. Farmers have learned to adapt to the constraints by storing water in dugouts and bunds. These water storage receptacles provide favorable aquatic habitats for mosquitoes. Additionally, farmers are implementing irrigation methods, such as furrow irrigation, that increase the potential for mosquito breeding. People who live around these urban agricultural field gardens easily contract malaria throughout the year if they are not properly protected by bed nets or pesticides or other control measures. It is important for policy makers to be cognizant of the relationship between agriculture and health when devising agricultural development and disease control policies and strategies.

For more information see The Linkages Between Agriculture and Malaria: Issues for Policy, Research, and Capacity Strengthening

        

On the eve of  World Environment Day on June 4, 2009, IFPRI hosted a side event at the June meetings, held in Bonn, of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), focusing on "Agriculture and climate change: an agenda for negotiation in Copenhagen." The event discussed the importance of negotiation outcomes that support adaptation and mitigation by poor farmers in developing countries and was based on a collection of policy briefs from IFPRI's 2020 Vision Initiative, authored by leading global climate change experts. Speakers included:

Gerald C. Nelson (IFPRI): Agriculture and climate change in Copenhagen: perspectives from the experts
Rattan Lal (Ohio State University): Carbon sequestration in world soils
Paul Vlek (Center for Development Research, University of Bonn):  Agricultural science and technology needs for climate change adaptation and mitigation
Sean Smukler (Earth Institute, Columbia University):  Monitoring and measuring progress in meeting mitigation prospects
Peter Minang (Partnership for the Tropical Forest Margins):  Direct and indirect mitigation through tree and soil management

The webcast and presentations from the side event are available here.

        

International experts, key policymakers, heads of farmers associations, and private sector representatives gathered in Entebbe from May 19-21 to examine the potential benefits and challenges of producing genetically modified (GM) crops in Africa. The conference, “Delivering Agricultural Biotechnology to African Farmers: Linking Economic Research to Decision Making,” was organized by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in collaboration with the Uganda National Council for Science and Technology and the Science Foundation for Livelihoods and Development.

Deciding whether or not to make GM crops a priority in their agricultural development and food and nutrition security strategies and invest in modern biotechnology is an important consideration for many African countries. To help inform such policy decisions, conference participants shared research findings that address critical questions such as the economic impacts of GM crops on small farmers, the obstacles preventing farmers from gaining access to and successfully using GM technology, as well as what lessons countries can learn from each other. A critical element of the conference was determining how to better communicate these research findings to policymakers.

All conference information, including the presentations, press release, and more, are available on its website: africabiotech.wordpress.com/